The North Carolina State Board of Elections released an updated voter file with vote history from the 2024 general election. As North Carolina is a party registration state, these data enable an analysis of how the partisan composition of North Carolina’s electorate changed from 2020 to 2024 general elections. These data are suggestive that at least some of Donald Trump’s 2024 victory was a consequence of Democrats voting at lower rates than 2020.

As always, some caveats. We do not know how any individual voter cast their ballot. A person registered with a political party is likely to support their party’s candidates, but this is not always true. Indeed, North Carolina’s governor race is a good example of when voters may abandon their party’s candidates.